The week of 22–28 June 2026

Track strike tempo, frontline pressure, and infrastructure targeting for the regional edition.

• Change in Russian missile and drone strike tempo against Ukrainian cities week over week
• Frontline movement on the contested axes reported by either side
• Shift in strike targeting toward energy, transport, or defense-industrial infrastructure

Monitor Dangote Refinery production capacity announcements, Nigerian fuel import substitution figures, and downstream petroleum pricing changes that could affect inflation and consumer purchasing power.

• Official Dangote Refinery announcements on production volume milestones or export start dates following the share placement
• Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited import reduction figures reflecting domestic refinery output
• Retail fuel price movements in Lagos and Abuja as refinery capacity utilisation changes

Track Togolese government compliance or defiance responses to the ECOWAS ruling, reactions from other ECOWAS member states, and any enforcement mechanisms the court or regional body activates.

• Official Togolese government response to the ECOWAS Court ruling, including acceptance or rejection
• ECOWAS summit agenda items or emergency consultations addressing the Togo ruling
• Civil society or opposition political activity inside Togo following the court's finding

Monitor Iraqi government statements on the political arrests, reactions from Iranian-aligned factions and Shia political blocs, and any correlation between domestic security operations and escalating Iran-US tensions spilling onto Iraqi soil.

• Additional arrests or detentions of politically prominent figures in Baghdad
• Public statements or mobilisation signals from Iranian-aligned Popular Mobilisation Units in response to the Iran strikes
• Iraqi parliamentary emergency sessions or no-confidence motions linked to security crackdowns

Monitor human rights organisation documentation of disappearances, Kenyan government or police responses, international diplomatic reactions, and any court rulings regarding the legality of detention practices.

• Reports from human rights organisations documenting new cases of abduction or enforced disappearance linked to protest activity
• Court filings or habeas corpus applications related to individuals detained in unmarked vehicles
• Statements from US or EU diplomatic missions regarding Kenyan government protest suppression tactics

Monitor Hezbollah leadership statements on the Iran strikes, any cross-border fire incidents on the Israel-Lebanon frontier, Lebanese Armed Forces posture changes, and economic indicator movements reflecting risk perception.

• Hezbollah or Lebanese political bloc public statements referencing the US strikes on Iran and potential response obligations
• Cross-border incident reports on the Blue Line separating Lebanon and Israel
• UNIFIL operational advisories or troop posture adjustments in southern Lebanon

Track Iraqi security force deployments around shrine cities, any threat communications targeting pilgrimage routes, and incident reporting from Karbala and Najaf as Ashura approaches.

• Security advisories or troop deployments specifically around Karbala and the Imam Hussein shrine complex
• Reports of threats or interdictions targeting pilgrimage infrastructure in southern Iraq
• Crowd size estimates and incident reports from the Tuwairej Million March event

Track casualty figures and rescue outcomes from the Lagos Satellite Town collapse, regulatory or enforcement responses from the Lagos State Building Control Agency, and any additional collapse incidents in other Nigerian cities.

• Official casualty and rescue figures released by Lagos State Emergency Management Agency
• Announcements of emergency building inspections or demolition orders in Lagos and other major cities
• Frequency of additional building collapse or structural failure reports in Nigerian urban centers

Monitor Nigerian military operational tempo across Katsina, Zamfara, and Sokoto states, civilian displacement figures, and any escalation in bandit attacks on communities or security convoys.

• Frequency and scale of Nigerian military raid announcements in the Northwest compared to prior weeks
• Displacement or humanitarian alerts from Katsina, Zamfara, and Sokoto state authorities
• Weapons seizure inventories indicating the scale and sophistication of armed group armament

Track Russian retaliatory strike patterns against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, US government responses to use of American-supplied munitions for deep strikes, and frontline stabilisation or collapse near Kramatorsk.

• Russian Ministry of Defence statements on damage assessments or retaliatory announcements following Volgograd and Novorossiysk strikes
• US congressional or State Department statements on authorisation boundaries for American-supplied weapons used in deep strikes
• Frontline displacement reports around Kramatorsk following the capture of Rai-Oleksandrivka